This study explores two issues related to high school graduation rates: early warning indicators and the relation of academic mindsets (students’ beliefs, attitudes, and dispositions) to students’ academic progress.

The report emerges from collaborative efforts between Nevada’s Clark County School District and REL West around strategies for using predictive analytics to help improve the district’s student graduation rates.

Key Findings

  • Seventy-one percent of the 8th grade students were on track at the end of the 9th grade
  • Ninth-grade on-track rates declined as the number of 8th grade risk indicators went up
  • Indicators for low attendance — insufficient credits, grades of F (Failure), and low GPA — are associated with lower on-track rates
  • The majority of students who fell off track by the end of 9th grade had displayed multiple risk indicators in the 8th grade
  • Academic mindsets and behaviors among 8th graders were significant predictors of 9th grade on-track status the following year