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Regression Discontinuity Design: A Method to Rigorously Evaluate Interventions to Reduce Crime and Improve the Justice System

Addressing challenges within traditional research designs for crime reduction and justice system improvement.

To address challenges within traditional research designs for crime reduction and justice system improvement, this collection of resources from WestEd’s Justice and Prevention Research Center provides information about the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) method.

The collection includes three briefs that

  • provide an overview of the RDD method, highlighting its effectiveness in real-world intervention evaluation and advocating for its wider use.
  • review over 60 RDD studies that were relevant to crime and justice, summarizing data gathered on the design from the available reports
  • recommend six approaches to promote RDD for broader use to rigorously evaluate crime and justice interventions


The briefs are followed by three summaries of studies that utilized the method effectively, as well as additional resources and blog posts discussing RDD.

Regression Discontinuity Design: A Method to Rigorously Evaluate Interventions to Reduce Crime and Improve the Justice System

By Jonathan Nakamoto, Alexis Grant, Trent Baskerville, and Anthony Petrosino

This brief provides information about the RDD method and shares a comprehensive overview of the RDD method that emphasizes its significance and efficacy in evaluating interventions in real-world scenarios. It advocates for increased RDD adoption, highlighting ethical advantages and the potential for more accurate and applicable research outcomes compared to other common evaluation approaches.


How Has Regression Discontinuity Design Been Used in Crime and Justice Research?  

By Jonathan Nakamoto, Alexis Grant, Trent Baskerville, Anthony Petrosino

This brief examines the application of Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) in crime and justice research, emphasizing its growing importance as a methodological tool.


Promoting the Use of Regression Discontinuity Design in Justice Settings

By Anthony Petrosino, Jonathan Nakamoto, Alexis Grant, Trent Baskerville

This brief discusses the potential benefits and underutilization of Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) in evaluating justice interventions.


Examining Prison Effects on Recidivism: A Regression Discontinuity Approach (Regression Discontinuity Design in Crime and Justice Project Study Summary #1)

Study conducted by Ojmarrh Mitchell, Joshua C. Cochran, Daniel P. Mears, and William D. Bales
Summary prepared by Jonathan Nakamoto and Trent Baskerville

This study summary explores the impact of prison sentences on recidivism rates by analyzing Florida Department of Corrections data.


Intensified Support for Juvenile Offenders on Probation: Evidence From Germany (Regression Discontinuity Design in Crime and Justice Project Study Summary #2)

Study conducted by Christoph Engel, Sebastian J. Goerg, and Christian Traxler 
Summary prepared by Jonathan Nakamoto and Trent Baskerville

This study summary investigates the impact of an intensive probation program on youth recidivism by analyzing conviction data from Germany’s Federal Crime Register.


Under the Cover of Darkness: How Ambient Light Influences Criminal Activity (Regression Discontinuity Design in Crime and Justice Project Study Summary #3)

Study conducted by Jennifer L. Doleac and Nicholas J. Sanders 
Summary prepared by Jonathan Nakamoto and Trent Baskerville

This study summary analyzes the impact of increased daylight during evening hours due to Daylight Savings Time (DST) on criminal activity.


Demystifying Regression Discontinuity Design: A Q&A with JPRC’s Research Team

In this blog post, the Justice and Prevention Resource Center research team provides evidence-based answers to common questions about the Regression Discontinuity Design method.


What is the Regression Discontinuity Design and How Can it be Used to Evaluate Crime and Justice Interventions?

In this blog post, the the Justice and Prevention Resource Center research team draws from a previously published brief to provide an overview of Regression Discontinuity Design, including what it is and why it is a powerful approach to evaluation.